Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

Cycle Analysis Forecast Gives Clues for March 2010 Stock Market Performance

According to cycle analysis forecast, SP-500 performance for March 2010 expected to be negative. The chart below has been plotted using Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-3.

Cycle Analysis Forecast Gives Clues for March 2010 Stock Market Performance

The stock market performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes. It is not easy to analyze the repetition of typical patterns in stock market performance because cycles mask themselves – sometimes they overlap to form an abnormal extremum or offset to form a flat period. A simple chart analysis has a certain limit in identifying cycles.

Addaptron Software has developed Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor (SMAP), computer program, which is able not only to extract basic cycles of the stock market (indexes, sectors, or well-traded shares) but also to predict an optimal timing to buy or sell stocks. SMAP calculation mainly based on extracting basic cyclical functions with different periods, amplitudes, and phases from historical quote curve. To detect correctly major cycles, the historical price data are transformed from time domain to frequency domain (spectrum).

See also:
Weekly stock market forecast
Tools to predict stock market


Nothing in this piece or on this web site should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments.

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February 27, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , | Leave a comment

Frequently Asked Questions about Investment Analyzers and Stock Market Predictor

Frequently Asked Questions about Investment Analyzers and Stock Market Predictor.

February 20, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Software | Leave a comment

Information Age: Stock Prediction Became More Complicated

These days, the stock market investors make many mistakes trying to predict the next move of a stock. What happened to some classical ideas of investing in the stock market and why old-time approaches do not work? Is stock market the same or it changed? How the age of worldwide economical integration, new technologies, and global problems affect the stock market investing? No doubt, in the last decade stock investing changed. Among the major changes are: (1) Globalization (strong economical dependencies, accessible global stock exchanges). (2) Technologies (instant delivering news, fast-triggered automatic trading systems). (3) Investors’ psychology (high sensitivity to news, more irrational behavior)… read more
© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

February 17, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Forecast Using Expert Method

The more methods and information are taken into consideration, the more precise an investment-related solution and, consequently, the more profitable is investing. There is Expert Method. This method can be explained by following. As example, an experimentalist shows a pen and asks about 40 people to write down their estimate of the length. Then he collects notes and calculates the average number – normally it is almost 100% accurate. Why it works? Everyone makes errors in different directions so that averaging gives a precise result.

There is a webpage where you are invited to build a collective forecast. Please share your opinion by voting and see the result of composite forecast. If you use more than one method, approach, or tool for prediction, it could be reasonable to give a vote for each one. All participants may benefit from building a simple average forecast. However, do not put too much trust in any method alone – make your own conclusion.

Link to S&P-500 weekly forecast

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

February 13, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Software | , , , , | Leave a comment

About Investment Analyzer InvAn

A good investing decision should be based on a multi-dimensional consideration of many criteria. However, making decision on the basis of too large data volume is not easy. To solve this dilemma, Addaptron has developed Investment Analyzer InvAn (IA) that performs fundamental, technical, and timing analyses converting them into three ratings. Then IA combines these ratings into a single number, composite rating, using a special algorithm.

About  Investment Analyzer InvAn

IA fundamental analysis is performed on the basis of several key ratios and parameters (factors) to reflect company and its stock actual state and dynamics. Also it includes stock performance expectations on the basis of analysts’ opinion and external ratings. IA technical analysis rating is a result of processing the signals from tens of technical indicators and combining them into a single number by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) algorithm that allows reaching the best accuracy in the forecast. IA timing rating defines optimal time of a stock to be bought (sold) in the current stock market conditions.

Due to a fast and automatic data processing, IA enables watching hundreds of stocks. IA composite rating allows ranking stocks (stock comparison) daily from the worst to the best. It also has other useful features, such as, calculating optimal cash reserve. It can forecast stocks’ portfolios or an individual stock (index) on the basis of Fourier series analysis or using pattern similarity. It has also a filter to select stocks with Cup-With-Handle pattern, as well as, correlation analysis tool for advanced portfolio management.

IA helps investors pick the right stocks for their portfolio and determine optimal investment timing. It increases the speed and depth of analysis, makes most necessary calculations for investors, and maximizes profitability. IA is a comprehensive system with user-friendly interfaces that is easy to use.

The main purpose of IA is to provide users with in-depth analysis to maximize the return on their investments. IA has been tested for many years with excellent results; however, it has its own limit as any other tool. According to Efficient Markets approach, news and other public information are incorporated into the price of a stock with a certain time delay (price is supposed to reach and keep a stable equilibrium that change only each time a relevant new information is known). Since IA does not formalize all informational universes, monitoring companies’ news and macroeconomic trends are very important.

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

February 9, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Neural Network vs. Cycle Analysis to Predict the Stock Market

The stock market can be presented by S&P-500 index. It is possible to build its different statistical forecasts using historical data. The purpose of the research was to compare two statistical methods: one that based on Cycle Analysis, another – on Neural Network. We used price and volume data to train this particular Neural Network.

A picture below shows how actual 5-day performance (yellow line) differ from predicted performances by these two methods. The top half is the comparison of Neural Network prediction, bottom half – Cycle Analysis. Green bars mean buy signals, red – sell.

Neural Network vs. Cycle Analysis to Predict the Stock Market

Three major conclusions:

  1. Cycle Analysis prediction gives signals too early, Neural Network prediction – too late.
  2. In average, Cycle Analysis prediction showed slightly better accuracy than Neural Network prediction for the last six months (from June 2009 to January 2010).
  3. It it possible to get a superior prediction by combining these two methods.

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

February 6, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , | Leave a comment

Knowledge Is Power

Knowledge is power; and unlike other resources, it does not diminish when it is shared but multiplies. Expected performance of a stock depends on quality of the company, market evaluation of its stock, and macroeconomic environment. Also general market conditions and news are significant contributing factors in stocks performance. That is why, a good investing decision should be based on a multi-dimensional consideration of many criteria. Consequently, one of the optimal solutions is to use fundamental, technical, and timing analyses together …read article "How to Become a Successful Investor"

February 4, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , | Leave a comment