Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

Until the Middle of November S&P-500 Might Be Still Good

The stock market during a month ahead might be driven by a few expected fundamental news. Nevertheless, technical factors can give some additional momentum for the market. In October, S&P-500 gained more than 3%. The last four weeks, S&P-500 weekly performance was 1.65%, 0.95%, 0.59%, and 0.02%. The trend does not look optimistic. However, according to a cycle analysis, October’s uptrend cycle can be still intact. The chart shows a possible resumption of uptrend until November 11:

Until the Middle of November S&P-500 Might Be Still Good

The forecast was calculated using software tool SMAP-3. A cycle prediction is based on the hypothesis that statistically revealed cycles may be repeatable in the future and, therefore, they can be used to build the summarized curve of future movements.

October 31, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stocks’ Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

The chart below shows S&P-500 index forecast for October 18-29, 2010. It has been calculated using pattern recognition forecasting and indicates some move down and then up.

Stocks' Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

This time most technical indicators do not signal any significant move – neither up, nor down. However, a big fluctuation can be expected due to the third quoter reporting season. Statistically, in most cases, it is a “bumpy road” from one to another day. At this an unbalanced stage, any particular overly good or bad news may drive stocks in any direction significantly. And it can be an opportunity for skilled traders.

October 16, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Technically S&P-500 May Be More Green than Red for the Next Two Weeks

Technically, S&P-500 index expected to be bullish during the period of October 4-15, 2010. According to the results of two different software tools for stock market, the behavior of the index is predicted as somehow between uptrend and sideways. However, technical predictions may be overwritten by changed fundamental-based expectations. The technical indicators are built on a historical predisposition and may work well if other informational factors are unavailable or new information still keeps the existing balance of future expectations. Technical methods are unable to predict most fundamental news, for example, the numbers of GDP or unemployment rate that will be announced.

October 3, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment