Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

S&P-500 Index Cycle Analysis Forecast for the Next Several Years

There is a simple forecast that is built on assumption that the stock market has a cyclical nature. The cycles may not be stable all the time but the probability of repeating cycles can be high enough to use the cycles by stock traders and investors for their benefits. The cyclical nature of the market can be masked by more powerful factors (fundamental data, bad/good news, global events, etc.) that over-drive the market time-from-time. Many technical analysts use cycle predictions in their comprehensive analysis.

One of the result-sensitive parameters in the cycle analysis prediction is a historical period that used to extract the cycles from a curve. The prediction can be very different depending on the historical period that is chosen. One of the stable cycles that is observed for the recent decade is a seven-year period. The chart below shows S&P-500 index forecast for the next several years. The calculation has been performed using Stock Market Predictor SMAP-3. According to this forecast the stock market might continue its uptrend with natural short-term small-amplitude sub-cycles until 2012-2013.

S&P-500 Index Cycle Analysis Forecast for the Next Several Years

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December 29, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment