Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

The Best Technical Indicators of 2010

Is it possible to find the best technical indicators that are the best for all cases? The best way to find the answer is to collect and analyze data and make a comparative analysis for many years. In fact, statistics shows that depending on different time-frame, market conditions, industry specifics, type of stock or ETF, and other factors, some indicators might be best but other worst, and vice versa. The major conclusion – it is better to select the best indicators for a particular case.

In general, the question can be answered if an average is calculated (although it might be not so helpful). Specifically, concerning average forecasting success based on the statistics during 2010, the five of top winning indicators are:

  1. Relative Strength Index
  2. Money Flow Index
  3. Twiggs Money Flow
  4. On Balance Volume
  5. Directional Movement System

Another problem is that there are not only many technical indicators but also many different interpretations of their signals. Some traders use particular favorite indicators and insist that their interpretations are right. A computer program could decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more and another less for particular market conditions and a specific stock. It could compose the forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator. The example of such program is Investment Analyzer (10-day forecast using Neural Network).

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March 30, 2011 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

There are many technical indicators. And there are many interpretations of each indicator’s signal. Some stock investors and traders use particular favorite indicators and insist on own interpretation. Who is right? What if to allow a computer program to decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more and another less for particular market conditions and a specific stock?

One of computer programs that enables to compose the forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator is Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. It performs a short-term (10 trading days) forecast using Neural Network. The chart below shows an example of such forecast. It is S&P-500 forecast for the first two weeks of August, 2010.

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments

August 3, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment