Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

Technology Sector Might Do Well During the Next Three Months

The chart below shows the comparative analysis of expected sectors’ performance for the next three months – April, May, and June of 2011. The 11 sectors (no data for Conglomerates) have been composed of selected more than 500 US and Canadian stocks. Apparently, Technology and Financial sectors look the best:

Technology Sector Might Do Well During the Next Three Months

The chart has been calculated using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. The calculation is based on a rank of stocks. Sector ranks distribution allows making comparative analysis of sectors’ ratings (sectors are formed from the stocks recorded in InvAn-4 internal database). The highest ranked stocks are expected to be the most probable best performers within the next three-month period. Stocks are ranked on the basis of the composite rating which is a combination of fundamental, technical, and timing ratings. Such combination allows realistic modeling the quality of a company and its stock in the market.

Advertisements

April 11, 2011 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of September 2010

The chart below shows S&P-500 index forecast for the last two weeks of September by pattern similarity. The prediction has been done using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4:

Stock Market Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of September 2010

A possible prediction is a slight downtrend until September 28 and then uptrend.

September 17, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , | Leave a comment

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

There are many technical indicators. And there are many interpretations of each indicator’s signal. Some stock investors and traders use particular favorite indicators and insist on own interpretation. Who is right? What if to allow a computer program to decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more and another less for particular market conditions and a specific stock?

One of computer programs that enables to compose the forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator is Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. It performs a short-term (10 trading days) forecast using Neural Network. The chart below shows an example of such forecast. It is S&P-500 forecast for the first two weeks of August, 2010.

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments

August 3, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pattern Similarity S&P-500 Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of July 2010

Pattern similarity method predicts stock market downtrend-uptrend reverse during the last two weeks of July 2010. The chart below was calculated and plotted using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. 80 historical days are used to predict within next 10 trading days. With settings for 10 best matches, the Analyzer scans among 153990 cases. The chart shows that S&P-500 index may continue a downtrend with fluctuation then gradually reverse to a moderate uptrend. The reverse point is expected on July 21 with a minimum value around 1050.

Pattern Similarity S&P-500 Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of July 2010

InvAn-4 searches for the best match from internal database by scanning all historical data. It ranks all possible matches on the basis of minimum deviation and maximum correlation within given historical period. Pattern matching is performed using open, high, low, and close prices and volume data. When scanning is completed, it composes forecast using several best matched patterns (top ranked). The composite result is built as a weighted average with weights proportionally patterns’ ranks. The number of patterns that form composite forecast can be adjusted.

July 17, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Sectors Comparative Analysis for Summer 2010

Each stock belongs to a general market, a particular sector and industry. An individual stock performance depends on the general stock market performance, as well as, on the sector performance. History evidences that different sectors perform differently in different periods. Therefore, choosing a right sector at the moment of investing can increase the chances of successful outcome.

The chart below shows the comparative analysis of expected sectors’ performance for the three months of 2010 summer. These 12 sectors composed of more than 500 US and Canadian stocks. Financial and Healthcare sectors look the best, the Energy – the worst. The question still remains if the stock market is going to be bullish this summer.

Sectors Comparative Analysis for Summer 2010

The chart has been calculated and plotted using Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. Its calculation based on a rank of stocks. The highest ranked stocks are expected to be the most probable best performers within the next three-month period. Stocks are ranked on the basis of the composite rating which is a combination of fundamental, technical, and timing ratings. The combination allows modeling quality of company and its stock very realistically.

Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments

June 7, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

The Technical Indicator to Watch Rapid Sell-off

One of the best technical indicators to watch a rapid sell-off is a high-order derivative. In mathematics, the derivative is a measure of how a function changes as its argument (input) changes. In stock investing, the derivative can be used to measure how fast the price of a stock changes for a shortest measured period, for example, in case of EOD, one trading day. The following formula can be used for calculation of the first order derivative:

Δ1 = p2 – p1

where p2 – current day closing price, p1 – previous day closing price

In other words, Δ1 is a speed of changing price. If we apply the same formula to two derivatives – current and previous , we get the second order derivative (or acceleration):

Δ2 = Δ12 – Δ11

where Δ12 – current day first order derivative, Δ11 – previous day first order derivative

We can calculate respectfully the third order derivative Δ3, which can be described as speed of changing acceleration. It can be considered as an indicator of panics in the stock market – the more its absolute value is, the more nervous investors behavior in stock market is.

The chart below shows the result of SP-500 index forecast built by Neural Network (trained by the third order derivative). Forecast horizon is two-week period (May 10-21) after May 6 stock market plunge:

The Technical Indicator to Watch Rapid Sell-off


The charts have been calculated and plotted by Investment Analyzer Inv-An-4.

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

May 8, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , | 1 Comment

Stock Price Forecast by Pattern Similarity

Pattern recognition systems are able to classify data based on statistical information extracted from the patterns. The patterns should be classified in order to extract useful information. Normally, a pattern recognition system consists of the input, data converter, an extraction processor to classify accordingly to descriptive scheme, and output grouped data. The most popular systems are based on statistical pattern recognition, i.e., statistical classification of patterns, assuming that the patterns are generated by a probabilistic system.

If we assume that some patterns are repeatable in the future, we can use selected present patterns to predict the future ones. Investment Analyzer (IA) by Addaptron Software has an extra feature to predict prices of the selected stock (index) using pattern similarity. The prediction period can be chosen from 1 day to around 60 trading days; the period of historical data that used for matching should be in 4..16 times longer than prediction period. IA searches for the best match from the internal database by scanning all historical data.

IA ranks all possible matches on the basis of minimum deviation and maximum correlation within given historical period. IA performs pattern matching using open, high, low, and close prices and volume data. When scanning is completed, IA composes forecast using several best matched patterns (top ranked). Since the statistical regularities of the patterns help to create more stable picture, IA allows adding up many top-rated patterns. The composite result is built as a weighted average with weights proportionally patterns’ ranks. The number of patterns that form composite forecast can be adjusted; the number range is 1..99.

The chart below has been plotted using IA pattern similarity feature. SP-500 index prices have been used as input; the output is predicted prices for two weeks of April 2010:

Stock Price Forecast by Pattern Similarity

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

April 8, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment