Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

Stocks’ Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

The chart below shows S&P-500 index forecast for October 18-29, 2010. It has been calculated using pattern recognition forecasting and indicates some move down and then up.

Stocks' Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

This time most technical indicators do not signal any significant move – neither up, nor down. However, a big fluctuation can be expected due to the third quoter reporting season. Statistically, in most cases, it is a “bumpy road” from one to another day. At this an unbalanced stage, any particular overly good or bad news may drive stocks in any direction significantly. And it can be an opportunity for skilled traders.

October 16, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stock Market Forecast for August 16-27 by Pattern Similarity

A pattern recognition system is to classify data based on statistical information excerpted from the data. Normally, a pattern recognition system consists of data input, converter, an extraction processor to classify accordingly to descriptive scheme, and output grouped data. The statistical classification of patterns assumes that the patterns are generated by a probabilistic system.

Some patterns can be repeatable in the future, therefore, we can use selected present patterns to predict the future pattern. Investment Analyzer InvAn-4 (IA) by Addaptron Software has an extra feature to predict stock or index prices using pattern similarity. The prediction period can be chosen within a range 1..60 trading days; the period of historical data that used for matching recommended in 4..16 times longer than prediction period. IA searches for the best matches by scanning all historical data from the internal database.

IA ranks all possible matches on the basis of maximum correlation and minimum deviation within given historical period. IA performs pattern matching using open, high, low, and close prices and volume data. When scanning is completed, IA composes forecast using several best matched patterns (top ranked). Since the statistical regularities of the patterns help to create more stable picture, IA allows adding up many top-rated patterns. The composite result is built as a weighted average with weights proportionally pattern ranks.

The chart below shows S&P-500 Index forecast for August 16-27, 2010 by Investment Analyzer. The forecast is a small uptrend and then a bigger downtrend:

Stock Market Forecast for August 16-27 by Pattern Similarity

Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments

August 14, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment