Stock Forecast Methods

Stock Market Trading and Investing

New Improved Version of SMFT-1 Released

Addaptron Software released a new version of Stock Market Forecast Tools SMFT-1. The software includes several improvements: models optimization, more different input file formats, and optional free Downloader. SMFT-1 is an integrated system that includes three major software modules: FTA-2 – a modified version of InvAn-4 that is a comprehensive tool used by serious investors for many years, the most popular software program SMAP-3 for stock market cycles analysis and forecast, and Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2.

New Improved Version of SMFT-1 Released

FTA-2 itself consists of six major modules:

  • “Technical analysis” – more than 50 popular technical indicators; chart analysis; indicators (each separately or all) used as input for Neural Network (NN) to build 10-day price forecast. The forecasts from all indicators result into a single forecast – each forecast added with the weight proportionally to the current ability of the indicator to predict prices.
  • “Waves” – Elliott Wave NN forecast.
  • “Candles” – candlestick pattern NN forecast model.
  • “Pattern recognition” – pattern-recognition filter and predictor.
  • “Correlation” – correlation analysis tool to perform analysis and evaluate the future trend using a mutually-correlated pair (or in opposite correlation) with time shift.
  • “Comprehensive 3-month fundamental-technical ratings model” – analyzing-predicting model that is based on key fundamental ratios and technical parameters reflecting a company-stock state and dynamics.

SMAP-3 is able not only to extract basic cycles of the stock market (indexes, sectors, or well-traded shares) but also to predict an optimal timing to buy or sell stocks. Its calculation mainly based on extracting basic cyclical functions with different periods, amplitudes, and phases from historical quote curve. Additionally, SMAP-3 enables finding optimal timing to buy/sell by analyzing months of year, days of month, and days of week (the calculation is based on statistical analysis).

NNSTP-2 is to help stock traders in predicting stock prices for short terms. It predicts future share prices or their percentage changes (can be chosen in settings menu) using Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN). It operates automatically when creating the FNN, training it, and mapping to classify a new input vector.

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April 27, 2013 Posted by | Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Stocks’ Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

The chart below shows S&P-500 index forecast for October 18-29, 2010. It has been calculated using pattern recognition forecasting and indicates some move down and then up.

Stocks' Forecast for the Last Two Weeks of October 2010

This time most technical indicators do not signal any significant move – neither up, nor down. However, a big fluctuation can be expected due to the third quoter reporting season. Statistically, in most cases, it is a “bumpy road” from one to another day. At this an unbalanced stage, any particular overly good or bad news may drive stocks in any direction significantly. And it can be an opportunity for skilled traders.

October 16, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

There are many technical indicators. And there are many interpretations of each indicator’s signal. Some stock investors and traders use particular favorite indicators and insist on own interpretation. Who is right? What if to allow a computer program to decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more and another less for particular market conditions and a specific stock?

One of computer programs that enables to compose the forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator is Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. It performs a short-term (10 trading days) forecast using Neural Network. The chart below shows an example of such forecast. It is S&P-500 forecast for the first two weeks of August, 2010.

S&P-500 Forecast for the First Two Weeks of August on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals

Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments

August 3, 2010 Posted by | Stock Market Forecast, Stock Market Software | , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment